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Jobs and GDP: Not What You Think

Many private-sector forecasters are expecting GDP growth to hit a bit of an air pocket in the first quarter of 2011 before growing at a pace above 3 percent for the remainder of the year.1 But the temporary deceleration in GDP Blue Chip forecasters are expecting coincides with an increase in private payrolls of 564,000 from December to March, the fastest pace of growth so far in this recovery.2 How can economic growth slow when employment is picking up? Well, this result is not unusual it turns out.

Job Gains + Lower Taxes = More Spending

Today's report on retail sales is largely in line with expectations and holds few surprises: total sales increased 0.4 percent in March following a 1.1 percent gain in February. The other good news is that the data from January and February were revised upward a tad (the technical definition of "a tad" is a tenth of a percentage point in growth rates).

Quirky Trade Stats: A Closer Look at February's Foreign Trade Report

As we have emphasized in the past, never put too much focus on a single month's trade numbers, as the monthly wiggles can be largely influenced by a wide set of idiosyncratic factors, such as exports of aircraft, imports of oil, spikes in the trading of pharmaceuticals, seasonal adjustments, the date of the Chinese New Year (seriously, see below)…

Gas (Prices) and Financial Indigestion

Question: Do increases in gas prices lead us to cut back on how much gasoline we put into our cars and trucks?

Excellent News in March Employment Report

Today's blog features our first posting from the Department of Commerce's Under Secretary for Economic Affairs, Dr. Rebecca Blank, who addresses the March employment report below.

Say What?! That's Not What You Told Me Last Month

Revisions to Employment and Retail Sales and What They Mean

What's more exciting than the NCAA Final Four?

Data revisions! (well, not really, but for those of you who follow economic indicators closely, data revisions are important).

What Drives Consumer Spending?

First and foremost, income drives consumer spending; that's why the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis monthly release of income receives so much attention.

GDP Revised Up; Corporate Profits Bouncing Back

As GDP releases go, this one doesn't garner much attention because of the limited amount of new information. The new information that merits some discussion includes revisions and profits. First up, revisions. GDP growth was revised up from 2.8 percent at an annual rate to 3.1 percent. How large is the typical revision? 0.3 percentage point, so today's revision is of average size. Also, if you recall last month, the numbers were revised down by 0.4 percentage point. What does all of this mean?

Corporate Profits and Industry Performance

A closely watched component of tomorrow's GDP release by the U.S. Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will be corporate profits. Corporate profits receive lots of attention for a variety of reasons. One of those reasons is that corporate profits touch many of us through the linkage between profits (and future expected profits) and stock prices, as those stock prices affect the value of our 401k and other retirement plans.

Manufacturing Sector Expands in February's Advance Durable Goods Report

Today, the U.S. Census Bureau released advance durable goods data for February 2011. The report contains a couple of noteworthy themes, one being that part of the manufacturing sector continues to expand (with the help of foreign demand), and another being that the pace of investment might be slowing some in the first quarter.

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