Tomorrow is the first Friday of the month, which typically brings new jobs data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. But, alas, the actual release date will be next Friday March 9th. To help satiate our cravings for labor market analysis, we have decided to take a look at today’s release of the weekly unemployment insurance data from the Department of Labor.
The four-week moving average for the week ending on February 25th edged down to 354,000, continuing a downward trend that started just before the recession ended but was interrupted in the first half of 2010 and of 2011. Claims have dropped markedly over the past several months, falling from the low 400,000s, often associated with payroll job growth, to the mid 300,000s. This continued drop in initial claims bodes well for payroll employment in February. As you can see in the chart above, the two series have inversely tracked each other closely over the past few years. Simply put, when fewer people are filing for unemployment, it typically means more people are staying employed. All else being equal, fewer layoffs translates into stronger payroll growth. Given that private sector job openings also are on the rise, private-sector analysts say the conditions are right for a solid February jobs report. Hopefully this is exactly what we’ll see next week when BLS releases their employment report for February.
~Mark Doms, Chief Economist, U.S. Department of Commerce
March 1, 2012
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