Today, the U.S. Census Bureau reported [1] that new privately owned housing starts in January 2012 came in at 699,000 up 1.5 percent from December 2011. January 2012 new housing start permits issued were up 0.7 percent over December 2011. However, the positive news goes deeper than just these two numbers.
For example, the January housing starts number came in ahead of private market expectations, which were in the 670,000 to 675,000 range [2], while the December number of housing starts was revised up by almost 5 percent. Units under construction were up 1.2 percent in January and these data from the two previous months were also revised upwards slightly.
Multi-family homes, which Census defines as structures with 5 or more units, have been largely driving the positive news in the housing market over the past few years as pictured above.
In addition to today’s Census data, there are various private sector indicators of the housing market and these are also generally showing strength. To cite one figure, the National Association of Home Builders puts out a housing index [3] that reflects factors such as the number of house sales, the expected number of sales over the next six months and the amount of traffic of potential buyers they are seeing. This index, after bouncing around between 13 and 17 for most of 2011, has been increasing since November and is now at 29. The number, in and of itself, is hard to assess so to put it in context, this is highest level it has been since April 2007.
~Mark Doms, Chief Economist, U.S. Department of Commerce
February 16, 2012
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