What do forecasters say about how the economy will fare in 2011? This is a difficult question to answer as there are lots of changing forecasts of the U.S. economy. What is true is that in recent months, most forecasters have become increasingly optimistic about the economic outlook for the U.S. economy. This increased optimism stems in large part from the December signing of the Tax Relief, Unemployment Insurance Reauthorization, and Job Creation Act of 2010.

If you recall, last month the monthly trade data surprised on the upside: exports shot up and the trade deficit went down more than market expectations. Sometimes with monthly economic series, these sudden changes reverse themselves in the next month (giveth and taketh away). Not the case this time, folks: exports and imports edged up a bit and the deficit was nearly unchanged. What this implies is that real export growth (adjusted for price changes) in the fourth quarter will likely increase at or near a double digit clip (at annualized rates, which is what GDP uses) while real imports, wait for it, may actually fall.