Written by John H. Thompson
Today I visited the National Processing Center, the U.S. Census Bureau’s large-scale data processing center in Jeffersonville, Indiana, to observe its role in preparing for the 2020 Census. The National Processing Center collects and processes data for more than 150 demographic and economic surveys, including the decennial census. It also houses some of the Census Bureau’s geographic operations, which play a critical role in providing the framework for survey design, sample selection, data collection, tabulation and dissemination for the 2020 Census.
An accurate address list is the cornerstone of a high-quality census. As we prepare for 2020, one of the four key areas of innovation we’re pursuing is re-engineering the way we build our address list. In the past, census workers would build the list by walking every street in America. Today while preparing for 2020, we are using technology and new information sources to update our address list through a process known as “in-office address canvassing.”
In-office address canvassing starts with clerks updating the 2010 Census address list based on new information from the U.S. Postal Service and tribal, state, and local governments, as well as commercially-available data. Then, they use satellite imagery and use geographic information systems to identify areas where substantial address changes are occurring. This review process gives us a handle on what housing changes have occurred since the last census, how well the Census Bureau’s address list is keeping up with the changes, and how likely changes are to occur in the future. In areas with rapid change or where we can’t verify addresses from the National Processing Center (about 25 percent of addresses), we’ll conduct in-field canvassing.
National Processing Center staff began working on in-office address canvassing in 2015, and they’ll continue all the way through 2020. Address canvassing is an indispensable part of a complete and accurate census that counts everyone in America once, only once, and in the right place. By using more in-office procedures to cut down on in-field canvassing, we can potentially save $900 million, compared to the cost of updating our address lists the old way.
For more information about how we’ll re-engineer our address canvassing process for the 2020 Census, check out the Detailed Operational Plan for the Address Canvassing Operation. To learn more about the National Processing Center, visit <www.census.gov/npc>.
Written by: John H. Thompson
Tomorrow morning, I’ll address the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform on the U.S. Census Bureau’s preparations for the 2020 Census. For the last three years we’ve been studying cost-saving design innovations; now, we’re shifting our focus to operationalizing the design and ensuring it will produce a quality census in 2020. I’m excited to share the progress we’ve made with the Committee.
Plans for the 2020 Census are right where they should be. We’ve already started making the decisions laid out in the 2020 Census Operational Plan – just as scheduled – and we will continue to do so. For example, we recently announced a major decision to use a commercial off-the-shelf platform for data collection in the Census Enterprise Data Collection and Processing (CEDCaP) program for the 2020 Census and beyond. Under the guidance of our new Chief Information Officer, research, testing, and IT system development will remain on track for the planned end-to-end systems integration test in 2018.
For more information about what I’ll discuss at the hearing, click here. To watch my remarks live, tune in to the Oversight and Government Reform Committee video feed tomorrow, June 9, 2016 at 9 a.m.
Today marks the beginning of the Atlantic hurricane season. These storms are among nature’s most powerful and destructive phenomena, and they have the potential to affect a large portion of U.S. residents. The 185 coastline counties along the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico – areas that are most threatened by Atlantic hurricanes – have a combined population of 59.2 million.
Emergency management officials can access statistics about communities in storms’ paths through the U.S. Census Bureau’s OnTheMap for Emergency Management tool. It’s a web-based resource that provides a live view of selected emergencies and weather events in the U.S., 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. It automatically incorporates real-time updates from federal sources so you can view the potential effects of hurricanes (and other disasters) on America’s population and workforce. The Census Bureau and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration – both within the Department of Commerce – have worked together to bring you this real-time data.
OnTheMap for Emergency Management uses rich, local socioeconomic and demographic statistics from the American Community Survey and other Census Bureau data sources to give a detailed look at affected areas. It gives you information on the number of people potentially affected by a storm, as well as some of their characteristics down to the neighborhood level – for example, what percentage of residents are 65 or older, or what local employment patterns look like. The Census Bureau provides vital economic and demographic data to federal and local emergency management agencies, which can use this information to better assess hurricanes’ impact on coastal populations. For example, following Super Storm Sandy, New Jersey officials used our data to estimate the volume of traffic in affected areas.
The Atlantic hurricane season lasts from June 1 through November 30. If you live in a hurricane-prone area, you can find safety and preparedness tips at www.ready.gov/hurricanes. You can also visit the National Hurricane Center for the latest tropical storm forecasts and follow the National Weather Service for active weather alerts.
Written by John H. Thompson
Today, the U.S. Census Bureau announced a major decision on the path to the 2020 Census. Since December 2014, we’ve been assessing whether to use commercial software products to collect and process data in the 2020 Census, or whether to build our own systems. After a great deal of evaluation and discussion, we have determined that a hybrid approach – combining a commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) system with specific solutions developed by Census experts – will best meet our needs.
During this same period, our in-house innovation and development teams have been hard at work developing prototypes that we could test during the 2020 Census field tests. These prototypes delivered key digital data collection system capabilities for data collection. This testing as been a critical part of the development process, allowing us to better understand how we could reengineer our business processes to save money during the 2020 Census. The work of the teams helped us develop and refine our requirements, and to make a well-informed evaluation of the COTS products.
Based on our final requirements and an analysis of the development and testing results – and with input from experts at Carnegie Mellon University, and the National Academy of Sciences – we decided on an integrated COTS platform that can supply functional solutions as well as allow us to incorporate some of the innovations that we have developed in-house. This approach meets our data collection and processing goals for the 2020 Census, and builds the infrastructure to support all of our censuses and surveys in the future.
Refining the systems we use for data collection and processing is a critical component of our proposal to save $5.2 billion in the 2020 Census, compared to repeating the 2010 Census design. The timing of this decision was critical to meet the schedules and timelines that are key to preparing for the 2018 End-to-End Test, which will test the integration of all major operations and systems.
To learn more about how we made this decision for the agency, click here. For more information about how we’re preparing for the next census, check out the 2020 Decision Memo and our 2020 Census Operational Plan.
Written by: John H. Thompson
This week I am visiting Los Angeles County to observe the last phase of the 2016 Census Test, currently underway here in California as well as in Harris County, Texas. Almost 225,000 households in Los Angeles County received a notification from the U.S. Census Bureau by mail 9 weeks ago asking them to complete the 2016 Census Test questionnaire online. Now, census takers are engaged in what we call “nonresponse follow-up” — that is, personally visiting households that did not respond to the census.
Director Thompson looks at the 2016 Census Test questionnaire online in Chinese.
Using technology to refine our nonresponse follow-op operations is a critical part of our preparations for the 2020 Census. The testing that’s underway in California and Texas will help us hone the innovative, cost-saving procedures outlined in the 2020 Census Operational Plan.
In the current phase of the 2016 Census Test, we’re refining the technologies and methods that we use to assign cases to field staff conducting nonresponse follow-up visits. In 2020, we plan to automate much of the door-to-door field work involved in this operation and better manage census takers’ workloads and routing in real time.
We’re also continuing to refine our innovative use of mobile technology in our follow-up efforts. We’re replacing paper and pencil with mobile devices for census takers who visit nonresponding households. These devices have special software that census takers will use to securely collect households’ information and transmit that data, daily assignments, updates and timesheets.
Finally, we’re continuing our research into how to best use existing government and commercial information to reduce the nonresponse follow-up workload. For example, we’re exploring how to use records to identify vacant units that we don’t need to visit. We’re also working on ways we can use this information to reduce the number of visits census takers make to nonresponding households, and to count those households if they don’t respond after multiple visits.
Through the smart use of technology and innovations like these, we can save up to $5.2 billion, compared to repeating the design of the 2010 Census. Thank you to the residents of Los Angeles County and Harris County for participating in this critical census test. Your cooperation is critical to helping us design a complete and accurate census in 2020, one that will give America the data it needs to make good policies and decisions for its growing population.
You can track the results of the 2016 Census Test and our plans for the 2020 Census at www.census.gov/2020census
Written by: John H. Thompson
Today, I am in Atlanta for a roundtable discussion with local officials on commuting data, and how they can use the Census Bureau’s wealth of statistics to serve their communities.
The Atlanta area is a great case study of some of the many ways that commuting data can be used by policy makers and residents. For starters, our data show that the mean travel time of Atlanta-area commuters is among the highest of American metro areas, at 31 minutes. Our data also indicate how residents get to work – whether by car, bike, public transportation or on foot. Atlantans rely heavily on their cars, with 76.3 percent of workers commuting by automobile.
Commuting data can also tell Atlanta leaders about how residents use other modes of transportation, such as the MARTA bus and rail line, the Downtown Loop streetcar line that opened in 2014, and the multi-use BeltLine trail that’s currently under development. Our statistics can show changes in how people use these alternative travel methods over time.
Armed with Census Bureau data on commuting, local officials can see how, when, and where their residents are commuting. This enables them to make evidence-based decisions on transportation on behalf of their constituents. For example, they can examine the relationship between transportation systems and development patterns in their area; implement policies to address traffic congestion; and use forecasting to predict commuting behavior.
But officials aren’t the only people who can use our data. Residents and advocacy groups can use them to petition for new or expanded roads, bus lines, bike lanes, and sidewalks. Entrepreneurs and economic development agencies can better understand the link between travel and business patterns. And the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (coincidentally, based in Atlanta) uses commuting data to track community design and its effect on environmental public health. The potential uses are endless.
Census Bureau commuting statistics come from the American Community Survey, the largest household survey in the U.S. Along with data on commuting patterns, the American Community Survey provides statistics on housing, employment, education and many other topics – and it’s the basis for the distribution of more than $400 billion in federal funds. Transportation strategy is just one way that communities use American Community Survey statistics to plan for investments and services.
Director Thompson and Doug Hooker, Atlanta Regional Commission executive director, discuss how Census Bureau data can be used to inform decisions on the city’s commuting and transportation needs.
If you’re interested in learning more about commuting patterns in your community, check out Census Explorer: Commuting Edition to see data by state, county and neighborhood. For special reports on commuting, visit the Census Bureau’s commuting web page.
For years, BEA has provided state-by-state information on people’s incomes, which includes refundable tax credits and rebates. But BEA did not break out the refundable tax credit statistics.
Now, for the first time, BEA is making available the amounts and types of federal refundable tax credits broken out for each state, giving policymakers, researchers and academics a new tool for economic analysis.
The new data, available on BEA’s website, includes information on the earned income tax credit and the additional child tax credit. The data are available for all 50 states and the District of Columbia from 1976 through 2014.
Policymakers can use the data to design and implement tax and economic policies. Researchers and academics can use the data for insights into the distribution of income in a state or across states. The data also can be used in analyzing poverty.
The U.S. monthly international trade deficit increased in February 2016 according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the U.S. Census Bureau. The deficit increased from $45.9 billion in January (revised) to $47.1 billion in February, as imports increased more than exports. The previously published January deficit was $45.7 billion. The goods deficit increased $0.9 billion from January to $64.7 billion in February. The services surplus decreased $0.3 billion from January to $17.7 billion in February.
Exports of goods and services increased $1.8 billion, or 1.0 percent, in February to $178.1 billion. Exports of goods increased $1.8 billion and exports of services decreased less than $0.1 billion.
Imports of goods and services increased $3.0 billion, or 1.3 percent, in February to $225.1 billion. Imports of goods increased $2.7 billion and imports of services increased $0.3 billion.
Goods by geographic area (seasonally adjusted, Census basis)
For more information, read the full report.
Written by: John H. Thompson
Today is Census Day for Harris County, Texas and Los Angeles County, Calif., the two sites taking part in the 2016 Census Test. Almost 225,000 households in each location have received a notification by mail asking them to complete the questionnaire. During the decennial census, Census Day – April 1 – provides the reference day for measuring the population; we’re using the same reference day for the 2016 Census Test.
The 2016 Census Test is part of the extensive research and testing that will help us make key decisions about how we will carry out the next census. From 2012 through 2015, we conducted seven census tests across the country that informed our 2020 Census Operational Plan. The test underway in Texas and California is a large-scale implementation of innovations from the 2020 Census Operational Plan.
The 2020 Census will be easy to respond to, because it will be our most automated and technologically advanced census ever. In 2020, Americans will be able to respond from anywhere – by mail, phone, or online using a laptop, tablet or smartphone. We’re replacing paper and pencil with mobile devices for enumerators who visit nonresponding households. We’ll also count people using information they have already given to the government, if they don’t respond after we’ve provided them with multiple opportunities to participate. The 2016 Census Test is a vital step in operationalizing all of these innovations. Based on its results, we’ll refine many of the innovative and cost-saving procedures and methods in the plan for use in 2020.
We’re now more than halfway to 2020, and we’re planning, researching, testing, and getting feedback to ensure that responding to the census is easy and secure. By using the innovations that are laid out in the 2020 Census Operational Plan and that are being tested in 2016, we’ll be able to avoid an estimated $5 billion in costs (compared to the projected cost of using the same methods as the 2010 Census).
If you live in Harris County or Los Angeles County, I encourage you to learn more about the 2016 Census Test by visiting www.census.gov/2016censustest. The 2020 Census will be unlike any other in our history. Your participation is critical to testing the innovations that will make the 2020 Census easier than ever to respond to, save taxpayers money, and ensure a complete and accurate census. Happy Census Day!
The Economics and Statistics Administration (ESA) plays three key roles within the Department of Commerce (DOC). ESA provides timely economic analysis, disseminates national economic indicators, and oversees the U.S. Census Bureau (Census) and the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). In this latter role, ESA works closely with the leadership at BEA and Census on high priority management, budget, employment, and risk management issues, integrating the work of these agencies with the priorities and requirements of the Department of Commerce and other government entities.